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Monday, August 2, 2010

Making bets with friends without losing the bet or your friends

To make a long story short, I'm now fat and to try and motivate myself to get in shape, I'm about to start a bet with a few coworkers regarding who can lose the greatest percentage of their own bodyfat over a 3 month period.

Instead of going over my plan to lose the weight or trying to sell you something from Amazon (I did buy the calipers linked below, though- so if you want to play along at home, feel free to click through the link and spend the $6), I want to lay out four rules I've picked up, either in law school or in real life, that are instrumental in helping make bets with friends without losing anything (the bet or your friends). 

Rule 1:  Get everything in writing
Let's face it.  Bets sometimes (most of the time) are made in haste.  If your body has more testosterone than estrogen, you probably don't like someone putting forth an idea or dismissing one of yours without offering some hard evidence.  One type of exchange that frequently leads to a bet is this:

Person A:  I just ran a mile in 8 minutes- I'm exhausted.
Person B:  That's not hard at all, I could do that.
Person A:  I'll bet you $50 you can't do it.
Person B:  Alright, let's do it.

At this point, B doesn't know if A is serious or not, and A doesn't really know if B has accepted.  If one of them gets out a piece of paper, though, and starts ironing out terms, the other would definitely know that $50 is going to be changing hands in the near future.


Rule 2:  Make sure that the terms of the bet are clear
In contract law, there's something (theory maybe?) called "mutual mistake".  A good way to piss off your friends and lose money is to enter a bet without knowing exactly how one establishes he has won, and exactly what's at stake.  

To illustrate how easy it is to be in this universe without knowing it, I want to take a look at a bet we just made in the office.  One of my coworkers claimed that he would eat a ghost pepper.  We got the whole thing in writing, but one word was left a little vague.  Basically, there was a prize for him winning ($85 plus I would stop drinking the iced teas from our office fridge for a month, and restock the fridge for everyone else), and a penalty if he doesn't try ($50 chipotle gift card), and if he tries and fails, the whole thing is a wash.  The vague part of this agreement is the "tries" part:  Is it enough to lick the thing?  Can he take a small bite and give up?  Small bite and throw up?  Sit down at the table, smell it, and pass out?  Since there's no way that my coworker is winning this bet (he can't even eat jalepeno poppers w/ seeds), the crucial point is going to be determining if he actually owes the $50, or if it's a wash.

Late last week, we ended up agreeing that "try" is defined as getting at least a dime-sized piece of the pepper at least as far as his esophagus.  We're now good to go, but if we hadn't defined that before he actually sat down next to the pepper, this could have been a very frustrating situation.

Rule 3:  Don't make a (name redacted) bet
In the office, we have a recently coined phrase called a (name redacted) bet.  That's because of this particular coworker, who has a habit of making bets with little-to-no upside.  It sounds great to be on the other side of this bet (free money), but the trouble is, this type of bet is a close relative of the "illusory promise" you might be familiar with from contract law.  I have no idea about the legality of the situation, but the fact is, it's tough to collect from someone when he had no chance to collect from you.  In a strange twist, since it's so hard to collect if you win, making a bet like this sometimes can put you in the no-win situation.

To give you an example, this coworker was recently helping me move out of my flooded apartment.  As it got late, I could tell that he was ready to call it a night, but I really didn't want to keep the uhaul for the extra day and spend another night moving my stuff.  So, I asked him if he would just sort stuff while I continued to make trips- he responded that there were "8 hours left".  To shorten the story- by the next day, we had a bet regarding whether or not I could get everything out of the place, with the help of another coworker, in under 3 hours.  (name redacted) realized that the bet was ridiculous, so he actually showed up and helped, and claimed that his help was the reason we made it, so the bet should be a wash.  I think that was kind of chicken-S, but I was in a situation where everyone was helping me move; combine that with the fact that he basically had no chance to win the bet, and I would have looked like a jerk if I'd seriously tried to collect.

Rule 4:  Offer Odds
If you're not familiar with odds, the basic concept is that they allow you to make any bet "fair".  For example, pretend that you want to bet on the outcome of a roll of the dice.  Obviously, the best number is 7, followed by 6 and 8, and then 5 and 9.  Unless you're dumb or have some special information, you don't want to be betting on the 6 while your buddy has the 7.  UNLESS, that is, you get paid more.  With dice, it's easy to figure out how to make it fair.  There are six different combos that give you 7, and five that give you 6.  So the person who is betting on 6 should get $6 when he wins, and the person betting on 7 should get $5.

The beautiful thing about odds is you can use them to make a bet that a person wouldn't otherwise take (the ghost pepper bet, for example) a reality.  If there's something that you think is highly unlikely (say 10-1), offer to pay the person $300 against his $50.  A lot of times, a person unfamiliar with betting will be intoxicated by the larger number and will gladly agree to something that has a negative expected value.


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